Synopsis on Company
BBR is a specialist engineering company in Singapore with a bit of property development on the side. Market cap is currently SGD86.30n or SGD 0.28/share
I am investing in this stock because (i) low price to book, low price to earnings, (ii) increase in order book not captured by market, (iii) property development not recognized fully on the balance sheet and (iv) BBR buying back shares
(i) Attractive valuation
(i) Attractive valuation
As at September 30, 2010, net assets total SGD71.72m, implying a P/B of 1.2x. Cash on hand is SGD44m, more than 50% of market cap.
(ii) Increase in order book not captured by market
(ii) Increase in order book not captured by market
Order book stands at SGD520 but fails to take into account the National Art Gallery contract announced late December 2010, which stands at SGD413m. BBR holds 25% stake in this contract via its subsidiary, Singapore Piling & Civil Engineering P/L. This adds approximately SGD103m to the order book or 20%. I believe the market has yet to factor this in. Prospects for the construction sector in Singapore look decent, especially public works, which BBR star is looking bright.
(iii) property development not recognized fully on the balance sheet
(iii) property development not recognized fully on the balance sheet
I believe the accounting treatment of the development properties are not fully recognized in terms of their value, indicating a cost basis, rather than a percentage completion. The upside on this is not treated properly. Note this is a hypothesis based on what I read on their financial statements, not confirmed with the CFO.
(iv) BBR is buying back significant shares recently
(iv) BBR is buying back significant shares recently
BBR and its CEO, Tan Kheng Hwee, have been buying back shares recently. This offers a great comfort to me as their most recent purchase of SGD0.27/share has been above my entry price.
The risk identified is
(i) Losses on the order book due to higher expenses
Orderbook is merely revenues but operating costs could be signigicantly higher than anticipated, especially labor. I note that BBR has been shifting to higher margin work, namely specialist engineering services and increased focus on project cost monitoring.
(ii) Losses on the property development
(ii) Losses on the property development
I am not sure if property development is the right way to go for BBR but note that the costings are probably understating the value of the developments. Also, the projects tend to be on the higher end, i.e. Nassim and Holland, which tends to hold the value better. Problem for all smaller tier developers is the usage of cash. In this case, this company has more than 50% market cap in cash, which provides a good degree of comfort. Cash levels are to be monitored on a quarterly basis as trigger points.
The probability of return is SGD0.33 x the probability of return at 90% (Given the strong fundamentals. I would believe the target price is a little bit understated, given the share buybacks and strong cash base.) less the 0.02 (0.27-0.25) ~ P/B at 1x = 0.25
Value of my decision is SGD0.28 versus my investment of SGD0.265
Conclusion:
I would say the valuation is understated and I see considerable upside to this share. Reason being the order book is significant and I expect more to come, given the cash holdings. I am happy with this investment and would hold it for 12 months or more, if this firm continues its performance so far.